Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

[Rich Z]

So what does that mean? They are predicting that it can be anywhere from lower than normal to above normal? :laugh:

Yeah, THAT is hedging your bets, now isn't it?

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/f...r-above-normal-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season

They don't even have a better than 40 percent probability on any of their guesses.... :face_palm_02:

 

[Twolunger]

I think we would be far better off ignoring NOAA and the fake news weather people. And while you are at it quit naming storms. The problem is that they are using global models which try to link the behavior of the atmosphere using physical laws and expressed as math equations. They had me doubling up my corns and placing them at the highest point of my house, due to the forecast of 9 foot storm surges. Both of my sons and their families fled north, and my wife and I fled to Ft Lauderdale. We got beat like an old time rug in Ft. Lauderdale, while the only thing that happened at our home was a few twisted Bismarck branches. Never again, bring on the surge, I have a boat at the dock now.

 

[Rich Z]

I can see where such forecasts would have their place, IF they were accurate. But honestly, I think most people would actually be better off if they did not even pay attention to the forecasts. Sure, I guess it is great for them selling advertising for Home Depot and Lowes and the likes for people getting panicked into buying survival rations. But for most people, it's causing a lot of really unnecessary stress and apprehension. Not to mention that too many times crying "WOLF!", even inadvertently, can cause even more problems that will eventually ignore even accurate forecasts.

A lot of people forget (or else never knew) that originally hurricanes were only named with women's names BECAUSE they were considered to be so unpredictable concerning where they were going. Or at least that is the non-PC story I heard many years ago.

I know they have to try, but I sure would feel better if I didn't believe there is a commercially driven incentive behind the obvious hype sometimes.

 

[Twolunger]

I was in Home Depot last week and they already have a hurricane display. Water, gas cans, generators, etc. After the panic caused by Irma I saw at least 50 brand new generators on Craig's List for sale. Never run and many still in the boxes. Plus more gas cans than you would ever need. I will say they predicted Irma would hit the Keys hard, and that area was blasted.

 

[Rich Z]

Yeah, the Florida Keys is not a good place to think about riding out a hurricane. The Keys have absolutely no protection against anything that makes a storm a hurricane. Even a modest storm surge would put every spec of land there under water. And with only one way out, it would be far too easy to just be way too late leaving if you decided to wait it out to see how bad it would get.

The Keys are a nice place to visit, but I sure as heck wouldn't want to live there. But in my opinion that goes for all directly coastal areas in Florida. As much as I like visiting the place, I certainly wouldn't want to be on Sanibel Island neither during a major hurricane.

 

[Twolunger]

I still can't believe the snakes survive when whole Keys are under water. I'll bet many cling to floating debris and are swept into the gulf. After Irma my brother moved in with us, as he figured his mobile home was gone on Little Torch Key, but when film crews traveled through the area showing the devastation his home was shown still standing. Turned out his mobile home was the only one in the area suffering no real damage. A large home right next door blocked the wind. FEMA demolished the homes on his street, so now he would have no protection, so sold his home last month. He bought a block home on Big Pine. I've got him watching for unusual corn snakes.

 

[Rich Z]

A long while back I talked with a guy who lived on the Keys, and he told me that corn snakes can be found in the most unlikely places there. He said that a lot of people there tend to rake up stones and shells into piles along their driveways, and he has found quite a few corns nestled within those sorts of piles. Might be worth having your brother looking into this possibility.

Personally, I would think that palm trees would be likely habitats for corns. When the old fronds die and bend downwards to lay against the tree, this would be an excellent habitat for corns and their prey. But certainly a lot of work to investigate looking for them.

 

[Twolunger]

When I visited the Keys last year I noticed the residents on his street did the same thing, raking shells into piles along their driveways. There seemed to be a lot of Pigmy rattlesnakes in his neighborhood, so he was called frequently by neighbors to identify snakes in their yards. He said 9 times out of 10 they were corns. Big Pine Key has a lot of typical Florida brush, so snakes have plenty of places to hide. The storm surge in the area of his new house was only 6 inches, so snakes could easily seek shelter.

I am waiting to see if any of the snakes he finds are corn snakes or the rosy red rat snake found in the Keys.

 

[Rich Z]

The Cinder/Ashy corn snake gene actually came from an individual gravid female "upper keys" corn, so I'm surprised that gene hasn't turned up anywhere in wild caught form on the keys. Seems highly unlikely that just that one female I got in trade would have been the ONLY carrier of that gene. I didn't get any specific locality data about which Florida Key that animal may have come from, unfortunately.

 

[Twolunger]

I have friends with a condo on Key Largo. They have noticed several corns and red rat snakes there. I wanted the husband to catch them and take pictures, and if there was something special I'd drive down. But his wife said no way, no snakes in their condo.
It's a heck of a drive down there, so I can't just take a day or two to go herping.

A few years ago I was visiting my brother who lived on Cudjoe Key at the time. He was showing me a little fresh water pond he had in the yard filled with tropical fish. He told me to watch out for pigmy rattlers because they hang out around the pond. He showed me a couple sheds on the ground. I asked him if he saw any during the day and he said he has seen them at dusk. He said they are pink with darker pattern. I told him he must be mistaken, as the Dusky rattlesnake is a dark color with dark patterns. I started to wonder if he had albinos living in the area. I was hoping to see one, but never did.

 

[Nanci]

I hope I'm set for power outages this year, with solar "generators." Really all I want is internet. Maybe plug in my freezer. For that hurricane last year, I evacuated, with 50 snakes, a tortoise, a pigeon and two dogs.

 

[Twolunger]

I drove to Lehigh Acres to visit a friend and to see his corns. I couldn't believe the sea of blue tarps on many of the roofs. I guess there aren't enough roofers in the area. It's even worse in the Keys, as the few homes for workers were destroyed, and many left the area.

 

[Rich Z]

I hope I'm set for power outages this year, with solar "generators." Really all I want is internet. Maybe plug in my freezer. For that hurricane last year, I evacuated, with 50 snakes, a tortoise, a pigeon and two dogs.

When we had the power go out here a couple of years ago, I found the thing I wished for the most was some battery powered fans. It was just murder trying to sleep. Couldn't open up the windows or all that hot humid air outside would just come into the house, making things feel much worse.

Since then I have bought four (4) of them, just in case. Just need to make sure I always have plenty of batteries stashed away too.

 

[Twolunger]

When we had the power go out here a couple of years ago, I found the thing I wished for the most was some battery powered fans. It was just murder trying to sleep. Couldn't open up the windows or all that hot humid air outside would just come into the house, making things feel much worse.

Since then I have bought four (4) of them, just in case. Just need to make sure I always have plenty of batteries stashed away too.

I have seen fans for boats that run on 12 volts. Usually they plug into a cigarette type receptacle, but you can add alligator clips to the wires and run them off any 12 volt battery. If you have a riding mower or lawn tractor take the battery into the house prior to a storm and it will power the fan for quite a while. Same with a Corvette battery, but you would probably take the one out of Connie's truck. LOL.

 

[Rich Z]

I wouldn't be real keen on bringing lead/acid batteries into the house. The fans run on D-cell batteries and run for quite a long time, so as long as I keep a good stock of the D batteries, things will be fine.

Worse comes to worse we can always relocate to the old ex-reptile building. It has the Onan generator tied into it, along with AC units in all the rooms. We would just have to set up cots (hopefully they haven't dry rotted apart by now) and we would be good.

The freezer is in that building, and the propane tank I have should run the generator for about 2 weeks when filled. We also have a propane grill for cooking, so we should be OK as long as a tree doesn't knock everything out here by landing on that building and/or the house.

But if a serious storm takes bead on us, we will just bail out of the area entirely. Now that we don't have animals to worry about, we wouldn't have that hanging over our heads in that decision making process.

 

[Twolunger]

When we stayed in Ft Lauderdale the power went out just before dark. It's surprising how fast a house gets too warm. I gave up trying to sleep. The next day I had to drive home with toothpicks holding my eyes open.

I have a fan on my boat, and it's coming in the house, battery and all. Or I'll have to sleep on the sailboat.

My neighbor has a nice generator that her dad installed. She hasn't used it yet, so I checked it out. I was surprised that her dad failed to install one of those safety lockouts on the electrical panel. I told her those lockouts keep you from switching to generator power until the main breaker is off. Hope her husband installs one.

I did call my brother and asked if he moved to the new house on Big Pine. He said the Key deer are ravishing anything that grows in the yard, except weeds. He is installing a 6 foot fence around the yard. I asked if he saw any snakes yet, and he said there a lot of corns there. He said they are brightly colored. Looks like I may have to go herping soon.

 

[Rich Z]

The wife and I have been talking about taking a trip to the Keys sometime. Matter of fact, right before Irma wiped out everything, we had been planning on circumnavigating the state so she could check out all the lighthouses along the way. She got a passbook where she can have it stamped for each lighthouse she visits. Maybe some of the abandoned lighthouses in the keys just aren't there any longer after that hurricane.

Anyway, about the corns, sounds worth a trip to check it out. Hopefully you won't get the "Well, you should have been here last week when they were all over the place."

I've got a 20K Onan generator attached to the old reptile building. Professionally installed, and kicks on automatically when a power outage is detected.

Used to be that any minor thunderstorm coming through here would knock out the power about an hour after it passed through. The locals used to refer to the local power company as "Florida Flicker and Flash". :laugh:

 

[Twolunger]

I always wanted to go visit the lighthouse on Dry Tortugas. My brother and his friends chartered a large fishing boat to take them out for 3 days. The captain warned them that he doesn't come back until the 3rd day, so bring your motion sickness pills. But they were all seasoned fishermen, so ignored the warning. I couldn't go at the last minute, and I'm glad I didn't. Due to the weather the gulf turned nasty and everyone except my brother was green around the gills. They were so sick they had to sleep on the deck so they could yell " ralpphhh" over the side.

Make sure you don't go to the Keys during lobster season. It's a madhouse at that time. I will see if my brother will catch a few of the snakes when I'm heading down. He also said there's some multicolored geckos in his yard. I'm curious to see what they are, but I'll bet after Irma a lot of pet reptiles were set free by the storm.

FPL sent everyone a letter asking you to report any trees or brush growing tall enough to interfere with the power lines. I reported two oak trees growing through the lines and actually causing sparks during strong winds. Also vines were growing up the poles and hitting the wires. That was a year ago and nothing was done. I called again 4 weeks ago and they thanked me and said a crew would be out. So far no crew.

 

[Rich Z]

Heck, I have called Talquin Electric about trees laying across our power lines, and they never sent anyone out. I had to wind up cutting the trees myself. The only time I have actually had them come out for a call of this nature was when a power line got actually shorted out from rubbing against a tree for years. The power was actually out, so I guess that got their attention.

I don't know why they don't just run the power lines underground. It would solve SO many headaches with downed power lines, especially from storms. Surely they have the capability to do that? Likely they just like to have us go without power every now and again, just so we learn how much we appreciate having power, and don't complain too much when the bill comes in every month.

 

[Twolunger]

In my area FPL came through and erected new, taller power poles. It wasn't more than a year later that the county widened the road and FPL moved all the poles. Looks like somebody wanted job security.