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Rich Z's Blatherings Since Connie and I have retired the SerpenCo business, topics here will focus on topics of a more personal and general nature.

Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
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Old 06-12-2018, 05:50 PM   #1
Rich Z
Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

So what does that mean? They are predicting that it can be anywhere from lower than normal to above normal?

Yeah, THAT is hedging your bets, now isn't it?

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/fo...rricane-season

They don't even have a better than 40 percent probability on any of their guesses....
 
Old 06-12-2018, 07:37 PM   #2
Twolunger
I think we would be far better off ignoring NOAA and the fake news weather people. And while you are at it quit naming storms. The problem is that they are using global models which try to link the behavior of the atmosphere using physical laws and expressed as math equations. They had me doubling up my corns and placing them at the highest point of my house, due to the forecast of 9 foot storm surges. Both of my sons and their families fled north, and my wife and I fled to Ft Lauderdale. We got beat like an old time rug in Ft. Lauderdale, while the only thing that happened at our home was a few twisted Bismarck branches. Never again, bring on the surge, I have a boat at the dock now.
 
Old 06-12-2018, 09:08 PM   #3
Rich Z
I can see where such forecasts would have their place, IF they were accurate. But honestly, I think most people would actually be better off if they did not even pay attention to the forecasts. Sure, I guess it is great for them selling advertising for Home Depot and Lowes and the likes for people getting panicked into buying survival rations. But for most people, it's causing a lot of really unnecessary stress and apprehension. Not to mention that too many times crying "WOLF!", even inadvertently, can cause even more problems that will eventually ignore even accurate forecasts.

A lot of people forget (or else never knew) that originally hurricanes were only named with women's names BECAUSE they were considered to be so unpredictable concerning where they were going. Or at least that is the non-PC story I heard many years ago.

I know they have to try, but I sure would feel better if I didn't believe there is a commercially driven incentive behind the obvious hype sometimes.
 
Old 06-12-2018, 10:27 PM   #4
Twolunger
I was in Home Depot last week and they already have a hurricane display. Water, gas cans, generators, etc. After the panic caused by Irma I saw at least 50 brand new generators on Craig's List for sale. Never run and many still in the boxes. Plus more gas cans than you would ever need. I will say they predicted Irma would hit the Keys hard, and that area was blasted.
 
Old 06-12-2018, 11:30 PM   #5
Rich Z
Yeah, the Florida Keys is not a good place to think about riding out a hurricane. The Keys have absolutely no protection against anything that makes a storm a hurricane. Even a modest storm surge would put every spec of land there under water. And with only one way out, it would be far too easy to just be way too late leaving if you decided to wait it out to see how bad it would get.

The Keys are a nice place to visit, but I sure as heck wouldn't want to live there. But in my opinion that goes for all directly coastal areas in Florida. As much as I like visiting the place, I certainly wouldn't want to be on Sanibel Island neither during a major hurricane.
 
Old 06-13-2018, 10:40 AM   #6
Twolunger
I still can't believe the snakes survive when whole Keys are under water. I'll bet many cling to floating debris and are swept into the gulf. After Irma my brother moved in with us, as he figured his mobile home was gone on Little Torch Key, but when film crews traveled through the area showing the devastation his home was shown still standing. Turned out his mobile home was the only one in the area suffering no real damage. A large home right next door blocked the wind. FEMA demolished the homes on his street, so now he would have no protection, so sold his home last month. He bought a block home on Big Pine. I've got him watching for unusual corn snakes.
 
Old 06-13-2018, 02:51 PM   #7
Rich Z
A long while back I talked with a guy who lived on the Keys, and he told me that corn snakes can be found in the most unlikely places there. He said that a lot of people there tend to rake up stones and shells into piles along their driveways, and he has found quite a few corns nestled within those sorts of piles. Might be worth having your brother looking into this possibility.

Personally, I would think that palm trees would be likely habitats for corns. When the old fronds die and bend downwards to lay against the tree, this would be an excellent habitat for corns and their prey. But certainly a lot of work to investigate looking for them.
 
Old 06-13-2018, 04:51 PM   #8
Twolunger
When I visited the Keys last year I noticed the residents on his street did the same thing, raking shells into piles along their driveways. There seemed to be a lot of Pigmy rattlesnakes in his neighborhood, so he was called frequently by neighbors to identify snakes in their yards. He said 9 times out of 10 they were corns. Big Pine Key has a lot of typical Florida brush, so snakes have plenty of places to hide. The storm surge in the area of his new house was only 6 inches, so snakes could easily seek shelter.

I am waiting to see if any of the snakes he finds are corn snakes or the rosy red rat snake found in the Keys.
 
Old 06-13-2018, 09:02 PM   #9
Rich Z
The Cinder/Ashy corn snake gene actually came from an individual gravid female "upper keys" corn, so I'm surprised that gene hasn't turned up anywhere in wild caught form on the keys. Seems highly unlikely that just that one female I got in trade would have been the ONLY carrier of that gene. I didn't get any specific locality data about which Florida Key that animal may have come from, unfortunately.
 
Old 06-14-2018, 09:39 AM   #10
Twolunger
I have friends with a condo on Key Largo. They have noticed several corns and red rat snakes there. I wanted the husband to catch them and take pictures, and if there was something special I'd drive down. But his wife said no way, no snakes in their condo.
It's a heck of a drive down there, so I can't just take a day or two to go herping.

A few years ago I was visiting my brother who lived on Cudjoe Key at the time. He was showing me a little fresh water pond he had in the yard filled with tropical fish. He told me to watch out for pigmy rattlers because they hang out around the pond. He showed me a couple sheds on the ground. I asked him if he saw any during the day and he said he has seen them at dusk. He said they are pink with darker pattern. I told him he must be mistaken, as the Dusky rattlesnake is a dark color with dark patterns. I started to wonder if he had albinos living in the area. I was hoping to see one, but never did.
 

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