Are we killing the future market?

[mike17l]

I know times are hard and people need to pay bills and snakes are not selling, but are we killing the future market for medium to high end corns? In a recent ad, a snake that would have been $1000 only 8 months ago. Now it is $200? another ad, has a pair of snakes (ultramel lav and het) for $200 as well, 8 months ago, that pair would have been much nearer to $700.

So, what are we telling the buying public? Are we telling them that all you have to do is wait 8 months and then you can get any morph you want for $200 or less?

If wee drop prices now, when times are hard, when it gets better and the market goes up, what will people expect? Will they expect to pay $1000 for a $1000 snake, or will they still expect to pay $200 for a $1000 snake?

So are we killing the future market? Will we ever be able to hope to sell an animal at $1000 or more?

 

[snakewispera snr]

We've been talking about the same thing..... I think or hope it all comes down to supply and demand....When people have more expendable income the demand will return....
I don't think the prices will return as they were though, which is a good thing in some ways. Hopefully breeders will have to up the anti to get the prices, which in turn will give the buying public more morphs a better choice of animal and perhaps we will see another species come through at the high end demand....

 

[bitsy]

Will they expect to pay $1000 for a $1000 snake, or will they still expect to pay $200 for a $1000 snake?

We're always going to be slaves to supply and demand. The bottom line is that a snake is only ever going to be worth what someone will pay for it. More in good times, less in lean times.

Realistically, there is no such thing as "a $1000 snake that someone will only pay $200 for". That snake will, by definition, be "a $200 snake".

 

[El Jefe]

The days of the $1000 corn are numbered. Unless you are the top of the top and the first of the first....good luck. But, let me prattle on....

In older days...say 10 years or so....$1000 snakes were very rare in the cornsnake hobby. In fact, they were even rare in most markets. I think part of the problem is a larger problem than cornsnakes. I think once the ball python market started charging unbelievable prices for stuff, every other market tried to do the same thing. It wasn't long until you started seeing "investment" animals for sale everywhere in every species. People started viewing snakes as an investment that was going to pay off down the road and the frenzy resulted in higher prices.

Was a spider ball python really worth thousands a couple years ago? Maybe, maybe not. When the ultramel craze broke 3 years or so ago were they really worth as much as people were asking? Co-Dom morphs are going to drop and they are going to drop quickly. Everyone can produce them very fast and it doesn't take the work like the recessive stuff does. So...it only stands to reason then that prices should fall pretty fast. Look at spider ball pythons now. Look at ultramels and golddusts now....not near what they were 2-3 years ago. Look at simple recessive stuff now....pieds in the ball pythons and something like a lavender blood or ice corn. They have some value but not the steep decline like co-dom. Supply and demand. Plus, don't forget the limited potential in ultramels. Only good with an amel based morph. Breed to an anery and you get zip. Okay, sure you could get an ultra anery down the road, but right now...what do you have? (By the way, for what it is worth, for my two cents I think those working on ULTRA morphs withOUT amel will find an investment far better and lasting longer than ultraMEL stuff)

Look at it another way...

Try creating that project starting from scratch. Lets say ultramel lavender versus lavender blood. For the first you need an opal and ultramel. For the second, lavender and blood. Neither one in their own right is very expensive. Next step, you breed them together. Case 1 gives you ultramels het for lavender and amels, the other gives you normals double het lavender blood. Now, without buying any new snakes, with the ultramels you can breed them together or breed an offspring back to the opal parent. Breeding siblings together will give you ultramel lavenders and ultra lavenders and other stuff but in addition to breeding siblings you can breed to the opal parent and that will give you 1 in 4 of the clutch being ultramel lavenders. With the other project you are stuck breeding them together as breeding to the parents won't help AND you have a 1 in 16 shot at making that lavender blood. Now...to get that target the easiest, which one will you do? Also, for the person who cannot holdback a large amount....hmmm....several double hets versus one male to breed to a parent opal or one pair that'll return better odds than the 1 in 16....

I know an explanation of the workings of a co-dom morph probably isn't necessary, but I wanted to include it. I think we'll see ultramels level out fairly quickly and the high dollar prices will come down to where they realistically should be. The first people in the ultramel game will (or have) made some money and I think the rest of the people will enter when it is low and it'll stay that way. To the breeders, ultramel things are neat. To most of the public, they look very similar to an amel, hypo, ghost, etc.

Anyone who has followed the ball python market knows the codom stuff is dropping...and dropping fast. Codom corns will do the same thing. Anyone who has followed the snake market will see that snakes were low one time then had this burst of being hard to get and high dollar and now I think we'll see a leveling out. Sure, there will still be rare snakes and some people might pay a good penny for them...in fact I hope so as I'd like to be able to sell some of my rarer stuff one day. In the grand scheme, however, there are a LOT of people working with a LOT of different combos, all trying to sell them. In a market like this where people can actually create most of the morphs out there ON THEIR OWN if they put some time in, there is no HUGE incentive to buy that morph first unless they really like it or they plan to breed it to produce more. If it is the first, the market stays high as that snake is essentially out of the market. If the second, however, the market heads down as more snakes--but more importantly--as more breeders enter and that will cause lower prices as each breeder attempts to sell their stock by undercutting the other guy. And that, my friends, is where I see things going....

.....so I suggest half of you bail now...especially those working on lava, sunkissed, or other morphs I'm working on.

 

[Drizzt80]

The bottom line is that a snake is only ever going to be worth what someone will pay for it.

That's how I was going to begin.

Definitely another great question/discussion. I've always wondered. Who actually buys the $5000/$10,0000/$20,000 snakes on the market? Breeders? Average Joe? Rich Collector?

I think the average, non-breeding, hobbyist, collector is priced out of the market at around $500 or so. How many other people does that leave to pay $1000 for a corn to begin with? I don't know the answer to that quesiton. :shrugs: There has to be a finite number of people able to pay that price.

I feel that if you have a snake that you think is worth a $1000, and not selling, you have 3 choices:
1. Keep it and wait for someone willing to buy it at that price.
2. Dispose of it by whatever means suit your fancy.
3. Lower the price to move sooner than later.

Unfortunately, you/I/we, are unable to control what someone else puts for a price on their snake(s). I feel I have the ethics to keep my prices in line with Rich/Kathy/Don, et. al., but that's the only person I can control.

How do the boa/python markets keep their prices so high?! And is keeping them high the answer?

D80

 

[El Jefe]

How do the boa/python markets keep their prices so high?! And is keeping them high the answer?

D80

Are they going to stay high???

From my experience...

Pythons--as easy to breed as corns

Ball python high prices
-investment frenzy (see above)
-recessives are hard to hit in those 6-8 egg clutches

Burms and Retics
-prices drop pretty fast there due to large clutches

Boas
--a little more tricky to breed so I think there are not a lot of successful people. Then again, kinks are getting worked out and more people are having luck.
--also, most morphs are recessive. The few that are codom are dropping fast....just look at salmons or hypos or even the sunglows for that matter.
--I predict lower prices on these too due to the high number of babies per success

Corns
--easy to breed
--moderate clutches
== $1000 corn days numbered per above

Again....

My 3 cents because it is worth more than your 2.

 

[Drizzt80]

Are they going to stay high???

They seem to have stayed higher, for longer, than your typical corn price . . . that's just from casual observation, nothing specifically tracked.

Corns
--easy to breed
--moderate clutches

I think that's the biggest kicker, and was going to quote your comments about "breeding your own morph".

My 3 cents because it is worth more than your 2.

Just for the record, my comments were being typed before your original comments were posted . . . took me a while to get my thoughts posted. Since my thoughts take longer to collect, and are more precise and exact and perfect, I'm going to sell twice as many of mine as you are of yours.

D80

 

[stephen]

cornsnake prices

I know I put those bottom line price, basically its the lowest I would want to get for them.
I was going to try to do the auction thing as Jeff Mohr did since he seems to be having some success at that.
Times for everyone are bad. Myself being in construction its really dead.
I suppose for some thats a little more well known, are still selling but still very slow. So whats the best thing to do ,I dont know,but I do know that I am paying for feeders with money out of my pocket .
I suppose if the economy stays this way, I will have to rethink exactly what I plan to breed next year.

 

[Nanci]

I looked at the ultramel bloods a while ago. It was the first morph that I was really excited about, outside of my couple stripe projects, (and I was very unfamiliar with the morph- although I love anything involving bloodred) that was (at the old price) affordable if I wanted to do some scrimping. I hesitated because I had nowhere yet to put them. I went so far as to ask a trusted breeder friend what he thought about the potential- if they would be a good investment. Unfortunately, while I was debating, they were apparently all sold except the one. Which I was quite excited to see at that price, which I took to be more of a "getting the last of the babies out before the end of the year lone male special" rather than a "lowest price because times are bad" thing. My feeling, as a consumer, is that I missed a great bargain, since he has been apparently withdrawn, and, if more are available next season, I would consider them again, at the previous price which seemed like a nice deal anyway.

 

[Nanci]

I suppose for some thats a little more well known,

I can't believe you wrote that! I have always thought you produced the finest corns, most of which were out of my league! Some day, I'll have some of your stock. You're working with the COOL morphs! (Which for me means still out of my reach- but someday!)

Back to the subject- speaking for myself, I have always been a credit-spending fool. But have never let things get out of control. I can pay my bills. Still, with everyone raising interest rates sky high, for borrowers who pay on time, more than the minimum, who don't screw up- I feel like it's a priority right now to lower the amount owed rather than adding to it. BUT there is a very real "risk" that a snake will come along that will make me throw that plan out the window And it's only a couple short months till tax return season! I had a blast, snake shopping, with that last year. Possibly another economic stimulus check? My plan is to work so hard that I can hopefully afford a couple quality snakes and pay CASH for them!

Well, I don't know the motivation for it, but even the biggest, Rich Z., has had a half-price sale. I don't think anyone believes he's going to drop his regular spring prices by half next year. (Although if he did, opal stripes would be mine, all mine!!!) I think, for the rarer morphs, of which there are only a handful the first several years, there will always be people who want to just buy one, not roll their own, and if there are only a couple of these snakes offered for sale, then the higher price will hold until the general population of hobbiest breeders catches up, like they are right now with lavbloods and cinders. I don't see this process as being anything other than inevitable. But new morphs will keep on coming!

 

[tom e]

I'm still a real noob when it comes to breeding (or really SELLING) so take this or leave it. Seems to me that someone who wants to cut his losses on some stragglers in a bad market- and just make a 'gift' to a lucky person in the community isn't really the same as breeding mass numbers with the plan to undercut the market..
If my animals were old enough and I were breeding already, I'd probably be trying to do the same thing this year (though I'd go heavier than I really wanted on keepers) and then I'd just plan on not breeding next year except for animals that would be possible 'firsts'..
I do understand everyone elses concerns though. It's hard to ask for the regular price when someone might be out there going, "What? I've seen them for $200!" Maybe the better thing to do would be to keep note of what people are looking for, and send private offers? That way you are passing on what you don't want as community appreciation, without sort of letting the whole market see and remember that price?

 

[Nanci]

So if anyone wants to stop pouring mice down a lava lav, or lava blood...

 

[tom e]

So if anyone wants to stop pouring mice down a lava lav, or lava blood...

PM sent! Just kidding..:wavey:

 

[El Jefe]

They [Boas and Pythons] seem to have stayed higher, for longer, than your typical corn price . . . that's just from casual observation, nothing specifically tracked.
D80

You want to know what I think???? No probably not but I'll tell you anyway....:idea:

I think it is/was all about marketing. To be honest, I think Pete Kahl, Brian Sharp, Ralph Davis, the Barkers, Sutherland, Grazani, NERD and a few others had some good foresight with the pythons/boas. I think in part they created the market and started it off high to begin with. Snakes were snakes....but they applied a price tag to them and made people believe they were worth more. There is a LOT to be said about perception and brand. Just because something is priced higher does not always mean it is worth more....sometimes it is just perceived to be worth more.

Walk into any mall in the United States and look around and look at all the brands. Are some worth more than others because the material is really that much better or is it because some person's name is on it. Are certain purses worth that much more because the pig/cow that donated the leather was that much more of an outstanding animal and the leatherman was that much better of a stitcher? If so, where do I get the bacon and steak from those animals? :sidestep:

 

[tom e]

I think that's probably right Jeff, though I haven't been around to see that history. As an outsider to those types of snakes it looks like people have probably hurt themselves over the short term to create that market over the long term. The cool genes seem to have stayed in the hands of people who want to protect those prices (or am I wrong? Don't really know) and so they keep that control. But that seems less conducive to the community feel that corn snake breeding seems to have.. I don't presume to know what's 'better'.. Probably some kind of balance?

 

[El Jefe]

I was going to try to do the auction thing as Jeff Mohr did since he seems to be having some success at that.

Some success is the key word. Sometimes I get more than I think they would sell for but sometimes I am disappointed and someone gets a terrific deal. I sold a 2008 pair capable of creating charcoal motleys and blizzard motleys for only $56 (Charcoal het amel motley male; amel het charcoal motley female). Shoot man...that's what they are worth without the hets!

So if anyone wants to stop pouring mice down a lava lav, or lava blood...

Okay...if pinks start getting too expensive I'll let you know....but at .11 ea at my quantity discount it'll be a while and I'm not sure those would be the first to go. Maybe a sunkissed lavender......

 

[Chip]

I think a lot of the market is dictated by species becoming "fads." There is no way that a hognose is difficult enough to breed to warrant anerys costing $3K and the codom "anaconda" morph keeping the same (or higher) price! But they are new, in short supply (supposedly) and seem to have the buzz. When a snow corn sells for the cost of a normal, how long until this species does the same? Probably not for a while, but I just can't see the investment being terribly wise. They may not crash like the albino nelsoni, but they are bound to drop sharply.
As for corns, I just can't personally justify dropping a mint on any morph. Well, maybe scaleless or something that different with the potential to produce endless combinations. In ten years, I suspect it won't be unusual for for beginners on this forum to post about their scaleless corn not eating!

 

[ghosthousecorns]

I know Mike started this thread about the high end corns, but it seems to me the entire market is shot to hell right now. Just browsing the for sale ads, there is stuff for $15 or $20 that would have been $30 or 35 last year, and even then you still see a bunch of "bump" at the bottom of those threads and nobody's price slashing tactic seems to be working. I got sick of it and took all of my ads down. I will try at a couple of shows in the spring, or just make a wholesaler happy, . if I am going to take peanuts as payment for a snake and it costs me that much just in time and pinkies, I would rather do so by wholesaling or just sit on them and try again in the spring since I still have plenty of feeder mice. The price slashing really bugs me a bit. It seems by undercutting others people end up hurting themselves and the whole market in the end. I know my own solution here is to cut back on breeding and hope other people will have the same idea, because until the amount of cheap corns goes down it is a buyers market... I might still do ghost stripes and keep up on my cinder projects but I have some breedable snakes looking to go without dates next year.

 

[Chip]

I do understand everyone elses concerns though. It's hard to ask for the regular price when someone might be out there going, "What? I've seen them for $200!" Maybe the better thing to do would be to keep note of what people are looking for, and send private offers? That way you are passing on what you don't want as community appreciation, without sort of letting the whole market see and remember that price?

Yanno, Tom, that might help. I still tend to think their value will drop when they have to be sold for a certain price, though. I can't think corns can be that different from balls and hoggies, whose values seem to be maintaining according to (perceived) supply. Of course, a lot of folks might be just keeping specimens and hoping to sell them as older animals.


And Jen, I'm not breeding any corns but one pair of w/c Okeetees this year. I've sold off or put everything else on breeder loan and I'm not expecting a windfall from those. I can buy hatchlings cheaper than it's worth to me to produce my "common" morphs. I don't think the whole problem is the national economy. I think it's partly a micro-economy regarding futures of snake morphs.

 

[ghosthousecorns]

My thoughts on the high end corns now... Basically only someone who is into corns or plans on breeding them even knows what some of this stuff is. I was trying to explain what an ultramel motley is to a member of my local herp club, this guy and his wife have a few corns, but also a tegu, jcp, several kings and lots of other stuff. They really enjoy keeping a variety of reptiles. Anyway I start trying to explain ultramel mot and comparing it to butter mot and I never seen anybody's eyes glaze over so fast. Which leaves a market of corn freaks left to buy the high end stuff. There really are not that many people who want them or have the means to specialize. So while that really nice and rare corn snake that there are only a few of out there seems like it SHOULD be worth a grand, realistically there isn't a whole lot of people that interested in corns and want THAT morph (considering the combos and possibilities are just about endless and tastes vary..). So if you are one of those lucky folks who can sell ice to an Eskimo, you might get 1K :shrugs: