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Question for Serpwidgets (or other math whiz)...

Amanda E

Amanda E

Snake Addict!
Okay... I'm trying to figure out the probablity of picking out a pair of Hets from possible Het animals, and I really have no clue if what I'm assuming is correct. It seems like it's right but I may be oversimplifying things. Anyway...


I have a bunch of 66% possible Het Caramel babies.

What is the probablity of picking out a pair of Het Caramels from this batch? Is it just 66%/2 = 33%


Also for future reference, what if they were 50% poss. Hets instead? Would the probablity be a 25% chance of picking out a pair of Hets?
 
Yes, the "picking" of one is not related to the picking of the other, so you can simply multiply them - but don't divide it by 2!
The division is just ok for the 50% poss.hets. cause that 50% is 1/2 and equal to a division by 2.
The Chance of picking 2 het. Caramel is (2/3 * 2/3 =) 4/9 or about 44%.
Hope I could help.
 
one problem

Although there is a supposed 66% chance that they are het that is simply a number. There is also a 34% chance that none of them are het.
That 66% chance of being het does not mean that 66% of the clutch will be het it just simpy means there is a 66% or 2 in 3 chance that each individual will be het.
There could be 0 hets or 1 het or 2 hets out of the whole clutch.
The chance of picking the "right" two from a clutch would be almost impossible. Especially when it comes to picking a male and a female.
Unless of course the 66% chance works in your favor and they all, or most, end up being het, which rarely happens when you want it to.
 
Don't forget Murpy's Law. Of course if these are desired hets, your chances of picking two are very slim. If they are unwanted hets... your chances suddenly become much greater. :rolleyes: That's how it works in my breeding programs at least. :shrugs:
 
Jimmy Johnson said:
Although there is a supposed 66% chance that they are het that is simply a number. There is also a 34% chance that none of them are het.
That 66% chance of being het does not mean that 66% of the clutch will be het it just simpy means there is a 66% or 2 in 3 chance that each individual will be het.
There could be 0 hets or 1 het or 2 hets out of the whole clutch.
The chance of picking the "right" two from a clutch would be almost impossible. Especially when it comes to picking a male and a female.
Unless of course the 66% chance works in your favor and they all, or most, end up being het, which rarely happens when you want it to.
Click to expand...

That is deffinetly not true. The chance that none of them is het must be calculated...
I think you simply missed the mathematical background (statistics) of the problem.
 
Since you're dealing with het caramels, you MAY be able to increase your chance of picking the hets by choosing the pair with the most yellow since SOME het caramels show an increased amount of yellow. This is NOT a guaranteed method, but MAY improve your odds.

I had to deal with a similar situation in trying to pick out a pair of hypos 66% chance het lavender. I did get a pair of hypolavs out of the clutch, but just chose the pair of hypos I liked the best and will have to wait a few years to see if I got lucky or not.
 
Oh, I definitely know it's just a probability thing and there is no way of saying that even one of them is a Het. I just wanted to know the math of determining the probability of picking 2 Hets, not the actuality of doing so.

Susan, some are definitely more yellow than others and this has made me lean towards keeping them, but there are 2 babies that just are so awesome, that I lean towards them even though they aren't really yellow at all.

OT from the original subject, but how many of you sell certain hatchlings only to find out later that they are much more beautiful than some of your keepers? Some of the ones I was originally planning to sell have moved into the keeper pile, and vice versa. It's so amazing how much they change in such a short amount of time.
 
menhir

it is not wrong.
Tell me....Is there a chance that none of the snakes will be het?.....YES
Now..just by saying there is a 66% chance that the hatchlings are het and then doing your strange math and comming up with a 44% chance that she could pick the right male and right female is absurd.
Just no way.
Truly do the math.
The numbers are stagering.
Lets just say only one in maybe 20 hatchlings is het.
Then there is a 0% chance of picking the correct female and male from the clutch now isn't there?
and that is just one simple example.
To say there is a 44% chance of Amanda picking a male and female het from a clutch of hatchlings that may not even have any hets just doesn't work.

quote
"
That is deffinetly not true. The chance that none of them is het must be calculated...
I think you simply missed the mathematical background (statistics) of the problem."

you said the above.
If you calculated that none of them could be het then how could you come up with a 44% chance of picking a male and female het from the clutch.
Your math obviously does not add up.
 
Lets just say only one in maybe 20 hatchlings is het.
Click to expand...
If you want to go by this, you can also say that there's no "possible het." They either are or aren't het, period end of story, so there's no "chance." You either picked two that are het or you didn't.

But you're totally missing the point when you do that. She wanted to know the odds, it's 4/9. ;)

You do not know that any or all or some of them are het. Nobody does. Therefore the most accurate prediction is that 2/3 of the normals are het.

Calculating the odds of more than one independent event is very simple. Multiply the odds. 2/3 by 2/3 is 4/9. It doesn't take a genius.
 
Jimmy, as I said - you are not right. No matter how you try to change the world, you are not right.
 
Jimmy Johnson said:
Tell me....Is there a chance that none of the snakes will be het?.....YES
Now..just by saying there is a 66% chance that the hatchlings are het and then doing your strange math and comming up with a 44% chance that she could pick the right male and right female is absurd.
Just no way.
Truly do the math.
The numbers are stagering.
Lets just say only one in maybe 20 hatchlings is het.
Then there is a 0% chance of picking the correct female and male from the clutch now isn't there?
and that is just one simple example.
To say there is a 44% chance of Amanda picking a male and female het from a clutch of hatchlings that may not even have any hets just doesn't work.
Click to expand...
Jimmy, the chance that a "normal offspring from parents both het for a recessive mutant" is het itself is not derived from calculating the outcomes of a massive number of clutches. It is derived from the fact that the mother has a 50/50 chance of throwing the mutant in each gamete, and the father has an independent 50/50 chance of throwing the mutant in each gamete. All together, this creates 4 equal possibilities, one of which is a morphed corn. The other three all look the same, but two of those three remaining possibilities are hets. Therefore, lacking any other information, those normal offspring are all most accurately described as individually having a 2/3 chance of being het.

Let me show you a trick:

Pick a number, any number. Add three to it, multiply that by fifty, then subtract twelve.

Now take that answer you got, add twelve, divide by fifty, and subtract three.

It's no surprise that you end up with the same number you started with.

If you "truly do the math" as you suggest, what you will discover is that there is a finite chance of getting a clutch of n normal offspring having no hets. What you will also discover is that you are even more likely to get a clutch of that same number of normals with ALL hets. When you add up all of the possible clutches and how likely they are, then average them back out, all you have accomplished is using the above "parlor trick" to arrive at the exact same answer as before: each normal has a 2/3 chance of being het.

Throw a bucket of coins on the floor and randomly pick up two of them at a time. Discard all results that are both tails, as if they didn't happen.

A- What's the chance of picking up a pair that was heads/tails?

B- What's the chance of picking up heads/tails twice out of two tries?
 
ok

I understand the math.
In that matter I was wrong and you guys were right.
Mathmatically
I don't have a problem with that. No it does not take a genius, Serp.
I just don't feel that although the odds may mathmatically be in your favor at 4/9 that it would be worth a chance to pick just two out of a clutch and hope you got the right two. Especially when you add PAIR to the equation.
I wouldn't take the chance with the morphs Amanda is hoping for.
Would you take those odds, Serp?
Menhir?
So, sorry for the misunderstanding.
Jimmy
 
Jimmy Johnson said:
I understand the math.
I just don't feel that although the odds may mathmatically be in your favor at 4/9 that it would be worth a chance to pick just two out of a clutch and hope you got the right two. Especially when you add PAIR to the equation.
Click to expand...

You didn't get the thing.
You don't have to care about pair cause the 66% is for EVERY SINGLE ANIMAL NO MATTER IF IT HAS A HEMIPENIS OR NOT!!!
Take 4 dices - 2 Blue 2 Red. 4 Sides of every dice shot "Het" 2 show "Not Het" - that's the 66% Chance.
Now, do you think it does matter, whether you roll 2 Blue, 1 Blue and 1 Red or 2 Reds? I don't.

To say it with Leonard Cohen "Everybody knows the dice are loaded..." :flames:
 
I love it.

I see both sides of this argument, and yes the probabilities are correctly stated by Serp and Menhir (as usual)
However, quantum mechanics has taught us that the lessons such as "a watched pot never boils" are at least partially true.
My suggestion for success is this: Meditate on it.
No joke, will yourself to pick the correct pair and it becomes more likely that you will choose correctly.

Unless of course <2 of them are het, as Jimmy suggested was possible, which means you should have meditated harder during the time of conception. :rofl:

The world is not static and it can be affected by your conciousness.
I, for the record, don't like hippies and am not one myself.
I do support radical thought, however, and the acceptance of quantum physics into the scientific lexicon has made it easier to present radical ideas in a way supported by science.

The "observer" matters.
 
Oh, not a nice example with the "watched pot never boils".
You can't convert examples of that "area" into the makrocosmos. Hmmm, I'd like to explain better what I think but the language barrier will lead to really confusing sentences... :sidestep:

All we are talking about is a probability. You can also calculate how much animas you have to pick to get with apercentage of 99,999999999% at least one het. animal - BUT, you will never reach 100% no matter how often you pick. Perhaps thats the confusing point in statistics - but, remember:

"1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature." (PI)
 
menhir

The reason I brought up PAIR is because she wants a pair.
So this would simply mean she would have to pick the right male and the right female.
Yes the numbers say it is mathmatically in your favor but you didn't answer my question.
If you were working to produce the morphs in question would you be willing to pick one male and one female from the clutch and be satisfied by the odds that you picked the right pair?
remember..it's just that one choice, after that the rest are gone.
I am just saying that I would not!
 
Argh, no - she doesn't has to pick the right male or female.
Let's say there are 10 Animals, 5 females, 5 males - she seperates the males from the females and picks one of each group. Chance 4/9.
Picking 2 out of the female group 4/9 - picking 2 out of the male group 4/9.
It's all the same... sorry, I can't give you a short summary of how statistics works, that would be hard for me in german and even harder english.
 
However, quantum mechanics has taught us that the lessons such as "a watched pot never boils" are at least partially true.
Click to expand...
Egh... The argument you are making is not scientific, it is philosophical. Please don't confuse those two things.

I just don't feel that although the odds may mathmatically be in your favor at 4/9 that it would be worth a chance to pick just two out of a clutch and hope you got the right two. Especially when you add PAIR to the equation.
I wouldn't take the chance with the morphs Amanda is hoping for.
Would you take those odds, Serp?
Click to expand...
Amanda asked what are the odds. She didn't ask "would you?" Nor did she ask, "should I?" She didn't even say what the project is, what morph she's trying to produce, or how important it is to her that she succeed or whether it would be a huge waste if those individuals turned out to not be het for caramel.

44%, would I? It depends on about a dozen variables and I don't think it's relevant to this discussion. That's her call to make, not mine, and not yours. If she had wanted that kind of advice, she would have asked for that advice.

It doesn't matter what I would do. Some people will not work with possible hets at all, and some will work with the unproven offspring from 50% poss hets on the off chance that they might get something from it. That varies greatly from individual to individual.

I don't see why so many people on this board, well after they've painted themselves into an indefensible position, find it necessary to try to pretend like they didn't say what they obviously did say. The record is right there for all to see. The question was, "what are the odds?" We answered it, you argued with our answer, and then tried to back out and say something about whether or not it's a good idea to try keeping a pair. Your previous posts said nothing about that.

We've already given an answer to the question asked in thread, so I'm done here.
 
Mathematics is/are mathematics

Yes there are mathematical patterns in nature, but not everything in nature can be understood through simple mathematics.

The quantum perspective, if it is to be accepted, invariably leads from wave/particle theory into the macrocosmos. How can we separate the sub-atomic world from the perceived physical world it creates? We cannot.
The concept of Super-position in Quantum physics would allow that any single corn that was chosen from the group discussed in this particular thread could be both het' and not het' for a particular mutation.

We have proven that an object can be at two places at once, you can see it at any science lab now.
I am just playing quantum Devil's advocate now.
Breeding corns can be understood sufficiently well through math, I am just playing with ideas.
I thank The Unified Field for Planck, Bohr, and Feynman.
 
Good God Serp get over yourself.
I agreed the numbers from you and Menhir were correct.
I even stated that I was wrong and you were right.
I am not trying back out of anything.
I am just saying that I ME MYself would not trust the odds to make the pick.
And yes she did mention caramels so morphs were mentioned.
As You stated the proof IS there.
Conversation ended. Over. finished.
 
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