Are we killing the future market?

[KJUN]

> Nah...I still disagree.

Well, you are welcome to be wrong. The thread was started for the reasons I stated.

 

[mike17l]

Well honestly, you'll never get a clutch of all $1,000 corns. Once there are more than a dozen in existance, the price begins to drop. After that point, anyone willing to pay the $1,000 has already done so. Combine that with more being produced and there is only one way to go, down. The very second you sell the $1,000 morph, you devalue the remaining stock because there is one more breeder out there with them. There is no way around it. You can get a few rare $1000 beauties out of breeding hets, but by the time you have a homo breeding pair, it's time to look forward and not stall more than a season or two with that morph.

A lot of people decide or are forced by finances to wait until prices drop, and that's OK for many reasons. Like I said, there is no such thing as an entire clutch of $1,000 corns, but a whole clutch of $200 corns is much more reasonable. And what's wrong with that? That's still a big chunk of change over what they cost to responsibly produce. The way I see it the more people who wait for prices to drop, the less compitition I will have for higher morphs down the road. Just waiting one more year sets them back, and when they don't realize that time is of the essence, they will usually also make the mistake of buying a pair and raising them to produce more of the same. With so many people breeding, you can't expect to sit on one morph for too long unless you are going to specialize in it and that's even a risk.

IMO, anyone who waits for the price to drop will never get a huge return by the time those animals are breeding age. As soon as I get a breeding aged pair of a new morph, my efforts are not usually concentrated on making more of them unless I really like them or see something in my stock that is unique and worth pursuing. Otherwise, my efforts go into using that morph to create a new one right off the bat. For example, I've got a male Lava Blood that may be breedable this season. I'm more interested in using him to make stock for Topaz Bloods, Sunkissed Lava Bloods, Lava Lavender Bloods, Ice Bloods etc than for making more Lava Bloods. I do think that morph is beautiful enough, and Lavas are rare enough for the Lava Bloods to keep a great value for some time, but I'm not going to put all my eggs in it.

The $1,000 market is VERY limited. So I'm very happy for the people who will still pay $200. I still get a decent price, they get what they want, and I don't have to worry about those snakes becoming my competition since I'm sure I will have moved on from that morph in the 2-3 years it takes to raise them to breeding size.

I remember when some people who got into Lav Stripes a little late were totally freaked when the prices dropped and played the blame game. It was bound to happen as soon as enough people had them. It really was a mistake for them to buy the animals to try and make more of the same thing, they should have been mixing them with there Anery/Ghost Stripes or Caramel Stripes. :noevil:

I understand normal decrease in price of a morph over a few years, I understand that prices will not hold in the long term, but we can help keep them up.
Here is why I started the thread, this should help explain what I am trying to get at. I gladly paid $500 for a pair of ultramels het for blood at the beginning of the 2008 season. If the breeder that I bought those from was selling ultramel bloods for $200 at the end of the 2008 season I would be furious.

I wanted to revisit the point made by Brent about how you don't see "oops I found eggs" in a BP discussion board like you would here. I don't know if that's true but the sad thing is those "oops" eggs often go on to hatch successfully and end up for sale too. Even "oops" eggs that are found a couple of days later all dehydrated, are saved because of people telling the "oops" breeder what to do to rehydrate them and how to incubate. Am I getting meaner? I don't know, but I am starting to understand why some people might reply "just put those eggs in the freezer". I actually froze some second clutches of 08 eggs earlier this year. I think the fact I did this may bother some, but I knew I had enough babies already and enough was enough. I do see the point of view that they all have a right to live and go to good homes, but if reality is there are more available snakes than homes, I'd rather see their lives end before they have a chance to go someplace where they were just a cheap snake owned by a cheap person who will not spend much on their enclosure and needs if they were not willing to spend that much to get the snake.

I always recommend this method to anyone who "finds" eggs.

 

[carol]

That would be frustrating but you can't really use Ultra has a market indicator. The genetics of that morph made it just ripe to collapse. All you had to do was breed your 100 gram yearling Ultra male to every morphed Amel female you had laying around anyway to get F1 Ultramels het anything. With that much work and time saved they shouldn't be worth that much. Wouldn't it be equally maddening to be selling a $1,000 morph that took you 6 years to produce and then see someone getting that price after 3 years? Fast cash deals like that only last so long, because everyone wants in.
Some people are willing to pay a big price because they are buying a shortcut and they know it would be a good 6 years before they could produce one on their own or a good 2 years before prices start to drop. With Ultra, a lot of people are willing to make their own because they really aren't saving as much time and effort spending big bucks on a homo.

It's frustrating but it happens. It was bound to happen in this case.

On a different note, ever buy hard drives or memory? See what you buy today will cost in a year. What costs you $100 this year they'll be giving away at trade shows next year.

 

[mike17l]

On a different note, ever buy hard drives or memory? See what you buy today will cost in a year. What costs you $100 this year they'll be giving away at trade shows next year.

Exactly, NEXT year, not later in the same season. :realhot:

 

[TandJ]

this whole thing reminds me of the Trading Card Industry.. People forgot about hockey cards until someone snapped up some rare card back in the early 90's for a cool $1 000 000.. Humm.. Suddenly trading cards got really hot for about 5 yrs and the frenzy died out, leaving the die hards doing what they do..

Timing is not everything, but watching the market for the best times is a key..

A lot of people jumped into the Reptile Hobby around 2000.. Prices seemed lucritive and a way to make a quick buck.. Smokers, a lot of people enjoyed some great sales seasons within the reptile market, and now its dwindling because some many people are out there trying to compete for a piece of pie..

A lot of people are realizing, hey, my piece of the pie is getting so small its not worth it and they bail out dumping everything and anything they can scrambling to cover their bills.. I heard a recent story about a breeder borrowing against their mortgage to get animals.. they had their house repo'ed and have a bunch of animals they can't sell in the market place because a lot of people speculated like them..

Long term, I am all right, I have a wide spectrum to choose from for projects on any given year regardless of what others breed..


Regards.. Tim of T and J

 

[Tom Tuttle]

I think this is one type that had a lot of hype. A good marketing campaign. Great Job...I applaud the producers of pied-sideds for being able to SELL their snakes for that....impressive. That being said, however, I don't think we've heard the end of this story. I know it has been seen in some lines that pied-sided to pied-sided doesn't always produce 100% pied-sided. How many people are going to be happy paying $1000 for a snake when it doesn't produce the way they want it to? Hope they got a good guarantee.

I couldn't agree more! If pied is truly a recessive gene why hasn't it been out crossed & recovered?:shrugs:It would be carried over into any morph. I'll be testing that with the hypo pieds that I produced.The days of $1000 corns are very numbered. The entire reptile industry has learned from the BP marketing of hype & illusion.

 

[KJUN]

I couldn't agree more! If pied is truly a recessive gene why hasn't it been out crossed & recovered?:shrugs:It would be carried over into any morph. I'll be testing that with the hypo pieds that I produced.The days of $1000 corns are very numbered. The entire reptile industry has learned from the BP marketing of hype & illusion.

The answer is "time"...because Don was working with hets...and you know how a hard it is to outcross and recover from a het patriarch. Rob got some of the first ones, and he DID outcross them when his reached adulthood. I believe his F1 should reproduce this year in 2009.

BTW, not all pieds were created equal. Unless yours, for example, are the same line as Don's, it doesn't mean that his are not simple recessive if yours are not and vice versa, of course.

 

[Tom Tuttle]

BTW, not all pieds were created equal. Unless yours, for example, are the same line as Don's, it doesn't mean that his are not simple recessive if yours are not and vice versa, of course.

Sorry KJ but that is the type of response I would expect from Joe P. Alot of double talk. How can something be het until the gene is proven recessive:shrugs:

 

[KJUN]

Sorry KJ but that is the type of response I would expect from Joe P. Alot of double talk. How can something be het until the gene is proven recessive:shrugs:

Go ahead and jump on my words for making a short post....lol. By het, I meant IF it turns out to be simple recessive; but I assumed that was self-evident and obvious. My mistake. Don has never (that I remember) said it that way as a fact. I meant, of course, that he is dealing with bloodreds that produce his pied-sideds but are not obvious pied-sideds themselves....including the matriarch that has already been described.

I understand that everyone wants any blood with white to be the SMR line of "pied-sided," but that may not be the case. Bloods with a "few" scales of white have been around for decades. It wasn't until Don's line started producing HIGH white reliably that anyone started really having strong evidence that these MIGHT be simple recessive. Still, Don has never sold his as definite hets or definitely simple recessive. Other people have done that from lines that may or may not be related to Don's.

Not all light snakes are hypos, right? Not all bloods with white on them may be pied-sided - that has yet to be proven or disproven. In my eyes, I believe the idea that all are equal (in terms of genetics) has already been shown to be false. I wouldn't be surprised if we finally clear up this quagmire and find that we get pied-sideds in a Mendelian-like gene and ones that superficially look the same that are just do to selective breeding as a by-product of trying to produce the "perfect blood" (i.e., we went to far.....lol).

KJ

 

[Chip]

No disrespect, TS, but KJ is dead on. Don has never said it that way as a fact, period. I called him as a prospective buyer interested in that project who had a pied. He was upfront with me.

 

[Tom Tuttle]

No disrespect, TS, but KJ is dead on. Don has never said it that way as a fact, period. I called him as a prospective buyer interested in that project who had a pied. He was upfront with me.

What is interesting to me is where in any of my posts have I referred to any names? KJ did. I love how everybody assumes. All anybody has to do is visit the classifieds at any site or personal websites to figure out those that I'm referring to.
While I didn't always agree with Joe Pierce I respect him for all that he has done with the Lava gene, and most of all he waited until it was proven to be a recessive gene before marketing it as one. :cheers:
To truly test this gene it needs to be out crossed to animals not carrying the diffuse gene and recovered. I hope Rob & Don the best in their trial breedings. Now that we are so far off topic I feel this discussion would better be suited to another forum. One that also can be viewed by the consumers.

 

[HanneysCorn]

This discussion would better be suited to another forum. One that also can be viewed by the consumers.

I totally agree Tom. Thank you for posting about this. This is something that folks in the corn community need to be aware of BEFORE investing in this type of project. When such a high dollar amount is demanded for this morph, and it is a beautiful creature no doubt about it, folks need to know it is reproduceable via Mendelian genetics and has been proven so.

Until you brought this up and the discussion with KJUN appeared, I had no idea that breeding het to het was not totally following Mendel's probabilities. I've seen pics of pied sides that really were questionable to me as being such but never having worked with the gene myself I was clueless.

How many others out there in the corn community don't know? Lots I suspect. I know it's a newly discovered phenomenon but I've truly wondered why we haven't seen some of the more in depth, advanced genetic breeders announcing Granite Pied, or Pewter Pied projects with gusto.

Thank you for bringing this to light.

Ruth

 

[Drizzt80]

and most of all he waited until it was proven to be a recessive gene before marketing it as one.

AFTER getting raked through the coals when he showed up here spouting about his new "transparent" hypo . . . :cheers: If memory serves correctly, he got (rightfully) pushed into testing and proving it out.

Until you brought this up and the discussion with KJUN appeared, I had no idea that breeding het to het was not totally following Mendel's probabilities. I've seen pics of pied sides that really were questionable to me as being such but never having worked with the gene myself I was clueless.

I think KJUN made it pretty clear (and it's actually in public record if discussions were followed) that there's "two types" of Pied Side, incompatible, that so far are acting like simple recessive . . . there's also the tendency for """pied side-like""" that has shown up in Bloodreds well before the Pied Side that Don is working with showed up. I have a pair that I held back that have noticeable white on their sides. I don't call them Pied Sides, but they are intriguing and I'll play with them a bit and see what happens. That begs the question of whether it's the lack of education on the part of the breeder that's labeling stuff pied side (or any morph for that matter) when it's not. Heck, I know a guy that labeled Amel corns Candy Canes just because the parents were Candy Canes . . . had nothing to do with amount of white on them! Don certainly hasn't confirmed his own line of Pied Side is simple recessive. :shrugs:

D80

 

[KJUN]

Either way, the people that make the money are the ones that take the risks. Nobody MAKES anyone buy something before it is a proven out, but those are the ones that usually show the best return on their investment if they guess right. I have a lot of F1s from unproven genes. If one proves out, it is an overall WIN for me. I'm GLAD Iwas able to buy them before they were proven. It makes me one of the firsts........lol

PLUS, not all valuable snakes are based on a simple recessive trait. Matter of fact, the snakes that have tended to hold their value the longest for me (hence the ones that make the most money in the long run) are the ones that aren't JUST simple recessive in nature: candycane corns, bloodreds, locality boas, etc. Lots of morphs are sold that are not simple recessive at all: locality boas, Okeetee/Miami corns, etc. Anyway saying something should be proven out before being sold is just likely seeing that others take risks and win while they are unable to do so. Selling something as a proven het 0- when it is not - is, however, wrong. The two situations are different.....

....and notice how selective bred morphs don't seem to crash like simple recessive ones do. So, to get back to Mike's original post, maybe we aren't killing ALL of the markets. Sadly, people that can't get a fair price for their snakes STILL like to try and ruin it for those that can......lol.
KJ

 

[Drizzt80]

AFTER getting raked through the coals when he showed up here spouting about his new "transparent" hypo . . . :cheers: If memory serves correctly, he got (rightfully) pushed into testing and proving it out.

"Translucent" not transparent. Here's the thread where things got started I believe. And I stand corrected by myself that he did quite a bit of proving out before he "got here", but still had some testing to do with the newer forms of Hypo that were popping up at the same time. :shrugs:

D80

 

[Vinman]

Back to the OP, High end breeders need to cut back production before the bottom fallout completely, reduce projects. Try to make connections overseas, Stop producing so many multi hets and selling them cheap. Just sell the males as for what ever morph they are to the pet industry. Learn to cull the females. You can always sell the females or or over stock to a person that raises cobras or feed off to hatchlings to juvi kingsnakes. The whole thing is to lower the amount of high end corns in the hobby. Stop being greedy and lower prices just to sell your animals. Dont produce more than you can sell . all these actions will protect you high end investment

 

[Drizzt80]

The whole thing is to lower the amount of high end corns in the hobby. Stop being greedy and lower prices just to sell your animals. Dont produce more than you can sell . all these actions will protect you high end investment

So where's the list of who gets to breed and sell and produce what with what amounts? I need to know where I am on that list so I know what to do. Who's in charge of that list? Who gets to make that decision? Did I miss a vote somewhere? Just curious.

D80

PS. I was expecting a for sale ad . . .

 

[Vinman]

So where's the list of who gets to breed and sell and produce what with what amounts? I need to know where I am on that list so I know what to do. Who's in charge of that list? Who gets to make that decision? Did I miss a vote somewhere? Just curious.

D80

PS. I was expecting a for sale ad . . .

d80 You did not miss a vote, just the boat. My post went over your head. I did not see any mention of any lists in my post either. You have to matain your own collection. You have to use common sence in what morphs you produce and what numbers you produce of these morphs. You just dont sell to anyone, You have to make sure that you aviod selling to people that dont have the resources to get the high dollar for their animals. So joe shmo just get into the breeding game, got big money to spend on highend animals but has no reputation of selling snakes . He is producing high end corns and no one knows him from a hole in the wall . He cant get his price so he low balls everyone and sells his animals for a fraction of the true value and brings down the value of that morph. Just because you produce 300 pied sided bloodreds does not mean you are going to sell all of them. You dont want to flood the market. My post was very easy to understand use common sence and dont produce more than you can get rid of , dont flood the market, dont sell to highend projects someone that is going to be a under cutter. There are sevral people I wont sell high end projects because I know they are greedy and will over produce that morph then undersell it just so they can get rid of all of their animals.

 

[ghosthousecorns]

Great theory, but not feasible. If you look at a few breeding plans threads there are people saying they plan to produce MORE than ever next year. And as much as I dislike it if they are going to have the same snakes as me and sell for less, that is their right and their choice. It would take all breeders agreeing to limit themselves and cut back production across the board and I just don't see this happening. Is it greed? Or pride? Or is it just the compulsion that every female needs to go with a male and become gravid?
Joe Schmo... in his eyes he is the next big thing too. It doesn't matter to him if you have never heard of him, he wants to breed snakes and he WILL get them. If not from you then from your competitor (you would never get anybody to agree only to sell to the big names - who are they? Is there a list? and who would be on it? Would it be ranked?)
I can choose for myself to let some females rest this year, and wish that other breeders will do the same but I have no delusion that the market is going to get better when there are people planning to breed more and more, and it makes me wonder if I should just breed everything I have too because my actions will have no effect if I'm just a drop in the bucket. LOL

 

[Drizzt80]

So joe shmo just get into the breeding game, got big money to spend on highend animals but has no reputation of selling snakes .

I WAS Joe Schmo just 6 short years ago . . . according to your words, at that time I shouldn't have been sold Lavenders by Rich, nor Lava's by Michelle, nor Charcoal Ghosts by Rich, nor Bloodreds by Kathy. I know that I can't afford to purchase a pair (or single) Pied Side right now, but that's not because I'm a Joe Schmo, it's because I don't have that much expendable income to put in that direction. Who is anyone else to stop someone that does have that expendable income to go that direction? Hmmm?

D80

PS. I knew you couldn't stay away and just post for sale ads!!! oke: