Ebola: It's In The US Now

[tsst]

Again, as I keep saying, since the consequence of being wrong is so dire, we should be erring on the side of caution, not counting on probability to protect us.

^^^ this ^^^

 

[HVani]

Also a reminder, we are all friends here.

Turn to the left and give that person a hug.

Also remember to cover your mouth and wash your hands after giving said person a hug.


And don't uke02:

Ooops :sidestep:

 

[Chip]

I just think people should think for themselves- not blindly follow CDC's simplified directives which are aimed at quelling the general public's fears.

I agree. I also think that the fears are overblown and the CDC is obligated to put out honest perspective.

How many thousands will die in the US from Flu this year? Where do these flu strains come from? Sounds un-PC to say, but most come from Asian hog farms. We do nothing to change their standards of farming at the cost of many lives, yet we absolutely flip out at a low risk African virus that can make you bleed from bad places before it (usually) kills you.
Don't get me wrong, Ebola is terrifying. But in developed countries, we are much better at diagnosis and isolation and patients won't flee hospitals. There are Ebola patients missing in Sierra Leone now: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28505061

What I have not heard is if there is any chance of our native bats contracting and spreading the virus. Seems fruit bats are the original host to this virus, though I'm pretty sure all the US bat species are micro bats. Seems a long shot, but that would be a Stephen King's The Stand scenario.

 

[Rich Z]

Are the bats that are the native hosts asymptomatic carriers of Ebola? If so, how can they spread the virus if they are not exhibiting symptoms?

I think that a LOT of people are right now wishing they had learned more about this virus before it came knocking on our door.

 

[Rich Z]

T
"We have tried and true protocols to protect the public and stop the spread of this disease," Lakey said in the statement. "This order gives us the ability to monitor the situation in the most meticulous way."

Yeah, I guess much like the protocol that had a guy come to the hospital with Ebola and get sent home with a "take two aspirins and call me in the morning".

Thompson said he was aware of news reports that Duncan had been vomiting before being admitted to the hospital, but said he was not concerned about the vomiting.

Not concerned about the vomiting? :eek1:

Isn't vomit a "bodily fluid"?

Is this guy seriously in charge of anything important?

 

[Shiari]

They spread it through saliva on fruit remains, which are picked up by various animals that humans then hunt/consume via the bushmeat trade.

 

[Rich Z]

They spread it through saliva on fruit remains, which are picked up by various animals that humans then hunt/consume via the bushmeat trade.

OK, but are those bats ASYMPTOMATIC? If so, why are they passing infectious virus particles without exhibiting symptoms of active infection? Aren't we being told that the virus can only be passed if the victim is actively showing symptoms?

I think there are some mechanisms of transmission that haven't been adequately explained, or perhaps not quite understood. But few, if any, experts are honestly saying "I don't know".

Which, of course, brings up the question of whether the "authorities" trying to prevent a panic are really qualified to give advice about how much danger really exists.

Meanwhile, I really don't appreciate any supposed expert trying to give me a song and dance when the tune being played is so serious.

Hope for the best, but plan for the worst would be prudent, I believe.

And expect that nearly everyone is lying to you. For government officials, obviously a general panic is much, much worse than you and I dying from a threat they are trying to downplay.

 

[blue roses]

I agree it is important not to panic, but just be prudent. For us who live in the cold climbs, we are use to the little extra precautions of flu prevention, we practice them yearly and i always get flu shots. The shot is not applicable in this case, but it does bulster the imune system and tells it to look for those little intruders. It might not stop ebola, but it might just give the immune system a wake up kick in the pants, so if you are exposed your little white cells will look at this untruder with a coffee in hand and ready to go into battle and not need to wake up first.

 

[Rich Z]

Yeah, personally I think the best thing to do now is to take supplements to boost your immune system. And pretty much when you are out in public, under no circumstances touch anything and then bring your hands to your face for any reason. If you habitually chew your fingernails, now might be a real good time to break that habit.

 

[Rich Z]

And speaking of said protocols in place to deal with this problem:

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-...cted-After-Working-in-Ebola-Exposed-Ambulance

:nope:

 

[Chip]

Yeah, personally I think the best thing to do now is to take supplements to boost your immune system. And pretty much when you are out in public, under no circumstances touch anything and then bring your hands to your face for any reason. If you habitually chew your fingernails, now might be a real good time to break that habit.

Hand washing and not touching your face is SO important! I have a friend we call Ryan the germaphobe, who takes this a little too far, but in his defense, he's had one cold in the ten years I've known him. I get one about every other year.

 

[Shiari]

Even if the bats are asymptomatic carriers, that doesn't change how it works in humans because we are not the reservoir population. You could get bit by a rabies infected (but currently asymptomatic) dog every day and until the virus finally makes it into the salivary glands, you won't get rabies.

 

[Nanci]

Are the bats that are the native hosts asymptomatic carriers of Ebola? If so, how can they spread the virus if they are not exhibiting symptoms?

Bats are the suspected reservoir, but that has never been proven.

 

[Rich Z]

Bats are the suspected reservoir, but that has never been proven.

So I guess that no one can say with any certainty that a reservoir of Ebola cannot happen here in the USA?

 

[Nanci]

No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola?

(Link to good article)

Holy moly! There's a case of Ebola in the U.S.!

That first reaction was understandable. There's no question the disease is scary. The World Health Organization now estimates that the virus has killed about 70 percent of people infected in West Africa.

The Ebola case in Dallas is the first one diagnosed outside Africa, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. And the health care system in Texas didn't quarantine the man right away. He was sick with Ebola — and contagious — for four days before he was admitted to the hospital.

But when you look at health officials responding to the case in Dallas, they seem cool as cucumbers, despite the initial misstep.

"I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or case, of Ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country," said the director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden.

Why is Frieden so sure this virus won't spread beyond a handful of cases?

It boils down to something called "R0."

(And a footnote you might miss...)

The R0 is integrated over the time that a person is infectious to others. For HIV, this could be years. But for Ebola, that time is only about a week. So even though they have similar R0s, Ebola's infections per unit of time is much higher than HIV's.

 

[Rich Z]

Even if the bats are asymptomatic carriers, that doesn't change how it works in humans because we are not the reservoir population.

With the increasing numbers of humans being infected providing a new test tube and the number of mutations of the Ebola virus apparently already taking place, that's a lot of dice mixing it up in the pot. This isn't like bisexual organisms in that a virus only takes one to develop a mutation and then run with the ball.

You could get bit by a rabies infected (but currently asymptomatic) dog every day and until the virus finally makes it into the salivary glands, you won't get rabies.

So in the case of bats that are presumed to be the reservoir for Ebola, are they known to go from a stage of asymptomatic and non-infectious, to symptomatic and infectious, and then either dying or surviving? Or are they ALWAYS asymptomatic and yet able to transmit the virus? I realize that quite possibly no one knows, but I think these are questions at least some people need to be considering. Ebola could be coming to the USA to stay.

Can anyone rule out that humans who become infected with Ebola and then survive will not become asymptomatic carriers? Just because you survive, does that mean the virus is no longer in your body?

 

[vetusvates]

No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola?

(Link to good article)

Holy moly! There's a case of Ebola in the U.S.!

That first reaction was understandable. There's no question the disease is scary. The World Health Organization now estimates that the virus has killed about 70 percent of people infected in West Africa.

The Ebola case in Dallas is the first one diagnosed outside Africa, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. And the health care system in Texas didn't quarantine the man right away. He was sick with Ebola — and contagious — for four days before he was admitted to the hospital.

But when you look at health officials responding to the case in Dallas, they seem cool as cucumbers, despite the initial misstep.

"I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or case, of Ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country," said the director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden.

Why is Frieden so sure this virus won't spread beyond a handful of cases?

It boils down to something called "R0."

(And a footnote you might miss...)

The R0 is integrated over the time that a person is infectious to others. For HIV, this could be years. But for Ebola, that time is only about a week. So even though they have similar R0s, Ebola's infections per unit of time is much higher than HIV's.

So...I would guess the "length of time between infection (or disease state) and death" being low, would cause fewer infections.
You've got an approximate 50% chance of dying/recovery...so you're not going to be alive to infect many. With Ebola.

Living longer "with mumps and measles"...would mean one has a lengthier period in which to infect more people.

There must be a number (likelihood-of-death/time-to-death) that _with_ R-nought would give a statistic that ranks a disease in "severity/seriousness".

Something like:

R-nought_______ x %likelihood-of-certain-eventual-death = SA (absolute seriousness)
days-until-death

 

[Rich Z]

One (of many) things I can't figure out, though, is that if it's not all that easy to catch Ebola how come medical personnel in Africa trained in dealing with infections diseases and KNOWING they were dealing with Ebola, caught it anyway? Are people really claiming those people were just stupid, careless, or lazy?

 

[Shiari]

Yes. Because accidents happen.

I accidentally jabbed myself with a dose of ketamine and valium! I probably only injected about 0.1cc, but yegods did that stuff sting like an *expletive*. Many people in vet med have dosed themselves with small amounts of vaccines, or a patient's blood.

If they're dealing with so many cases they are turning people away, supplies are probably hard to come by if not borderline non-existent. They may be re-using gloves, which can get small holes in them. They might not all have access to water-proof garments. They might wipe their face, or their hair. Sometimes might get on a shoe, but not be seen. They might be touched by an infectious family member who is not yet so sick that they are coming to the hospital for themselves.

We can't think of their hospitals as like ours. They are very very much NOT. They are nowhere near the standards of our hospitals.

So these things *happen* because of poor supplies and being overwhelmed and because things *happen*.

 

[diamondlil]

It would be fantastic to think that in well-organised Western countries with good health systems that any outbreaks could be easily contained.....as someone said earlier you wouldn't have people hiding out from the authorities or escaping from hospitals.....except I'll tell you that within 2 streets of where I live, for the second time within a month, there are mobile home trailers illegally parked in the car park of my local leisure centre, and the occupants are using the bushes and shrubs surrounding the little park area there as an open air toilet.
How do I know? Because that's the area where my dogs have fun catching rats. Except obviously I won't let them in that area now, not until those people and their filthy habits are long gone and a hopefully hard winter will have dealt with whatever they've left behind.
So on my doorstep in the middle of an urban area I have an area overrun with rats that I've informed the authorities of - no action taken.
People who often have very little contact with health authorities until they descend upon the ER in an emergancy, when we screen and often find they have TB or other illnessess, using areas next to a children's park as a toileting area - authorities aware, action to remove them is a lengthy legal process.
SO..if those people are carriers of any diseases for which rats could be a vector, there's a reservoir being created in the middle of an urban area in the Uk. Food for thought?